John C. Williams

President, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

 

Joined the Federal Reserve: March 1, 2011

Date of Birth: June 12, 1962

Statements

   
Summary Lean Statement Date Publication Date
1  Rules of Engagement: "My own view is that it was time. The economy has been showing solid momentum, the recovery was well into its seventh year, and I’m someone who takes forecasts into account. I expect to see U.S. GDP growth of about 2¼ percent for 2016, unemployment edging down further below my estimate of the natural rate, to about 4½ percent by late in the year, and inflation—despite the stubbornness it’s shown—to move back up to our 2 percent goal within the next two years. All of which argue for getting on the normalization track. I also expect this to be a gradual process. This reflects the fact that the economy still needs a gentle shove forward from monetary policy, as we continue to navigate some headwinds—like weakness abroad—and their effects, particularly on the dollar and commodity prices. It also reflects my wish to take things slowly, to be able to adjust to circumstances and data as they come in. These projections take into account the headwinds, low growth, and low r* that come out of our models and are incorporated into the optimal control paths." Hawkish February 25, 2016 February 25, 2016
2  Head of San Francisco Fed is still expecting modest economic growth, and more rate hikes: "Williams, in an interview with the Los Angeles Times, said the recent global developments certainly need to be closely monitored. But he said the “big picture for me hasn’t changed,” and his view on U.S. employment and inflation — the two key areas determining the Fed’s monetary policy — remains sanguine. “The basic approach we took, which is a gradual rate increase, is still right,” Williams said, while declining to predict whether he would support a rate hike at the Fed's next meeting March 15-16." (It is not clear on which date this interview took place.) Neutral February 22, 2016 February 22, 2016
3  The Right Profile: Economic Drivers and the Outlook: "This is just to put into context that when I look at my December forecast and compare it with my outlook for unemployment and core inflation today, there’s virtually no change. The shifts in my forecast amount to just one-tenth of a percentage point. I therefore continue to see a gradual pace of policy normalization as being the best course. My preferred route is a gradual path of increases. This reflects the fact that the economy still needs a gentle shove forward from monetary policy, as we continue to navigate the headwinds from weakness abroad and their effects on the dollar and commodity prices." Hawkish February 18, 2016 February 18, 2016
4  Fed's Williams says sees 'smidgen' slower rate hikes: "The Federal Reserve probably needs to keep U.S. interest rates lower for longer given headwinds from weak global economic growth, a stronger dollar and an unexpectedly sustained drop in oil prices, a top Fed official suggested on Friday. San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams told reporters he now sees slightly slower growth, slightly higher unemployment, and about a tenth of a percent lower inflation this year than he had expected in December, when the Fed raised rates for the first time in nearly a decade." Dovish January 29, 2016 January 29, 2016
5  Fed is clearly on a path of returning rates to normal: Williams: "The Federal Reserve is clearly on a path of returning interest rates to a normal level of 3 percent to 3.5 percent over the next few years, a top Federal Reserve official said on Friday. Raising rates in December was the right thing to do, given the improvement in the labor market, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams said. Further and gradual rate increases "make sense" he said, although the exact timing of rate hikes will depend on the economic data." Hawkish January 29, 2016 January 29, 2016
6  Fed's Williams Sees Issues Abroad as Biggest U.S. Recession Risk: "The Fed retains the option to pause its hiking cycle to reassess economic conditions as it moves forward, Williams told reporters. During the panel, he said that he will “stick with the view that right now it’s going to take a gradual three-year process to get interest rates back to normal.”" Dovish January 15, 2016 January 15, 2016
7  After the First Rate Hike: "But if my aim is true and things evolve as expected, the path will look more like an airplane’s gentle ascension than a rocket shooting straight up: At that pace it will take nearly three years before the funds rate reaches a stable level. But even then, our cruising altitude, as it were, likely won’t be as high as in the past." Neutral January 8, 2016 January 8, 2016
8  Fed's Williams, unfazed by China, sees 3-5 rate hikes this year: "San Francisco Federal Reserve President John Williams said Monday he is unfazed by the weak economic data out of China that has spooked Wall Street, and sees three to five U.S. interest rate hikes this year as reasonable given the strength of the U.S. economy. "In terms of those developments ricocheting into the U.S. economy, I think we have really really strong fundamentals, in terms of consumer spending, in terms of our economic trajectory, so right now at least this isn't a big concern for me," said Williams, one of the few Fed officials who regularly visits China for a first-hand look at the world's second-largest economy. For 2016, "I think something in that three to five rate hike range makes sense at least at this time," Williams said in an interview on CNBC." Hawkish January 4, 2016 January 4, 2016
9  Fed's Williams wants low rates, hot economy in 2016: "The Federal Reserve aims to keep the U.S. economy running hot next year to boost the job market and inflation, a top central banker said, and to achieve that goal interest-rate hikes will be slow but will not follow any predictable pattern. "Every meeting will truly be live in terms of adjusting policy one way or the other," San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams told Reuters in an interview, referring to the Fed's policy-setting meetings." Neutral December 18, 2015 December 18, 2015
10  Dancing Days Are Here Again: The Long Road Back to Maximum Employment: "From my perspective, the song remains the same: We’ve made remarkable progress and the economy is on the cusp of full health. The first step in bringing policy closer to normal was when we ended QE. The next appropriate step is to raise rates. My preference is sooner rather than later for a few reasons." Hawkish December 2, 2015 December 2, 2015
11  Fed's Williams Sees ‘Strong Case’ for Dec. Increase If Data Hold Up: "“Assuming that we continue to get good data on the economy, continue to get signs that we’re moving closer to achieving our goals” and are gaining confidence that inflation will move back toward the Fed’s 2 percent target, there’s “a strong case that can be made in December to raise rates,” Williams said, speaking with reporters at the University of California at Berkeley on Saturday." Hawkish November 21, 2015 November 21, 2015
12  All’s Well That Ends Better: The Outlook, Education, and the Future of the American Economy: "My forecast is that we’ll reach our maximum employment mandate in the near future and I’m increasingly confident that inflation will gradually move back to our 2 percent goal. It makes sense, therefore, to start gradually moving away from the extraordinary stimulus that got us here. We already took a step in that direction when we ended QE3. Given the progress we continue to make on our goals, I view the next appropriate step as the start of a process of gradually raising interest rates. That’s the “how”; as I said, the data will determine the “when.”" Hawkish November 7, 2015 November 7, 2015
13  Monday's Top Stories in the United States: "Williams wouldn't tell reporters if he favored raising rates at the next meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, saying, "We've got a lot of data coming between October and December." He also said he is not inclined to react to one strong employment report, referring to the 271,000 jobs gains in October as reported Friday. Even though the FOMC has been looking for higher wage pressures as they look to become more confident inflation is moving back to the 2% target, Williams said he's "not going to get all jumping up and down because we saw a nice number on wages this time." But asked by MNI about the pace of rates after liftoff Williams, a voter this year on the FOMC, said relative to the last time the Fed raised rates, "My expectation given the headwinds to the economy, given how fundamentally the economy can't handle high interest rates now and still have this rate of growth, that we're going to move, I would expect, slower than that."" Dovish November 7, 2015 November 9, 2015
14  Fed official: Central bank has made no decision on rate hike: "A voting member of the Federal Reserve cautioned Friday that the Fed has yet to decide when to raise interest rates even though it issued a statement this week that said a rate hike was possible in December. John Williams, president of the Fed's San Francisco regional bank, said he wants to study more economic data in coming weeks before deciding whether the economy is strong enough for the Fed to raise its key short-term rate from a record low, where it's been for seven years." Neutral October 30, 2015 October 30, 2015
15  Fed's Williams Upbeat on Economy, But Doesn't Signal Timing of Rate Rise: ""I do see the time to start raising rates in the near future," Mr. Williams said, although he added that "we are going to watch the data" to determine when to act. When it comes to boosting borrowing costs off the rock-bottom levels they have been at since the end of 2008, "it's one of those things I've described as a close call," and "the arguments on both sides have a lot of merit."" Hawkish October 19, 2015 October 19, 2015
16  The Economic Outlook: Live Long and Prosper: "And given the progress we’ve made and continue to make on our goals, I view the next appropriate step as gradually raising interest rates, most likely starting sometime later this year. Of course, that view is not immutable and will respond to economic developments over time."  Similar to Prior Statement Hawkish October 8, 2015 October 8, 2015
17  The Economic Outlook: Live Long and Prosper: "And given the progress we’ve made and continue to make on our goals, I view the next appropriate step as gradually raising interest rates, most likely starting sometime later this year. Of course, that view is not immutable and will respond to economic developments over time."  Similar to Prior Statement Hawkish October 6, 2015 October 6, 2015
18  Fed's John Williams Still Expects Rate Increase This Year -- Update: "Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President John Williams said Tuesday he still expects the central bank to begin raising short-term interest rates this year, despite a slowing of job gains in September." Hawkish October 6, 2015 October 6, 2015
19  Fed's Williams Sees Higher Rates as Early as October--Update: "Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President John Williams said Thursday he sees interest rates going up this year, perhaps as early as October, as the U.S. economy is nearing full employment." Hawkish October 1, 2015 October 1, 2015
20  The Economic Outlook: Live Long and Prosper: "And given the progress we’ve made and continue to make on our goals, I view the next appropriate step as gradually raising interest rates, most likely starting sometime later this year. Of course, that view is not immutable and will respond to economic developments over time."  Similar to Prior Statement Hawkish October 1, 2015 October 1, 2015
21  The Economic Outlook: Live Long and Prosper: "And given the progress we’ve made and continue to make on our goals, I view the next appropriate step as gradually raising interest rates, most likely starting sometime later this year. Of course, that view is not immutable and will respond to economic developments over time." Hawkish September 28, 2015 September 28, 2015
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