Statements

 



Summary Lean Statement Date Publication Date
1  Lael Brainard Fed's Brainard: Global 'crosscurrents' may hit US: "She told CNBC that, while the recent core inflation number was "encouraging," she wanted to see more consistent movement toward the inflation target. Brainard noted that the Fed has made "a lot of progress" toward achieving full employment, but has not yet seen enough movement toward its inflation goal. "I'm going to be very focused on inflation, but I want to see a pattern. I want to see some persistence. That would give me comfort," she said." Dovish March 7, 2016 March 7, 2016
2  Stanley Fischer Reflections on Macroeconomics Then and Now: "Since the U.S. economy is now below our 2 percent inflation target, and since unemployment is in the vicinity of full employment, it is sometimes argued that the link between unemployment and inflation must have been broken. I don't believe that. Rather the link has never been very strong, but it exists, and we may well at present be seeing the first stirrings of an increase in the inflation rate--something that we would like to happen." Hawkish March 7, 2016 March 7, 2016
3  Lael Brainard An Update on the Outlook, Liquidity, and Resilience: "Given weak and decelerating foreign demand, it is critical to carefully protect and preserve the progress we have made here at home through prudent adjustments to the policy path. Tighter financial conditions and softer inflation expectations may pose risks to the downside for inflation and domestic activity. From a risk-management perspective, this argues for patience as the outlook becomes clearer." Dovish March 7, 2016 March 7, 2016
4  Robert S. Kaplan Discussion of Economic Conditions and Implications for Monetary Policy: "While I believe that excessive accommodation carries a cost in terms of distortions and imbalances in hiring, asset allocation and investment decisions, I also believe that, at this juncture, the Fed needs to show patience in decisions to remove accommodation. Again, this is particularly true in light of key global secular trends as well as recent developments relating to slowing global economic growth and tightening financial conditions." Dovish March 3, 2016 March 3, 2016
5  William C. Dudley The U.S. Economic Outlook and Implications for Monetary Policy: "In sum, I still anticipate that the combination of decreasing resource slack and anchored longer-term inflation expectations will contribute to inflation rising to our 2 percent objective over the medium term. Even so, because of the more persistent effects of energy and commodity price declines and U.S. dollar appreciation, the return of inflation to that goal may be slower than I earlier anticipated. This does not deny the possibility of some upside surprise―such as a sharp upswing in wage growth triggered by low unemployment. But, on balance, I am somewhat less confident than I was before." Dovish February 29, 2016 February 29, 2016
6  Lael Brainard What Happened to the Great Divergence?: "As policy adjusts to the evolution of the data, the combination of heightened spillovers from weaker foreign economies, along with a lower neutral rate, could result in a lower policy path in the United States relative to what many had predicted." Dovish February 26, 2016 February 26, 2016
7  John C. Williams Rules of Engagement: "My own view is that it was time. The economy has been showing solid momentum, the recovery was well into its seventh year, and I’m someone who takes forecasts into account. I expect to see U.S. GDP growth of about 2¼ percent for 2016, unemployment edging down further below my estimate of the natural rate, to about 4½ percent by late in the year, and inflation—despite the stubbornness it’s shown—to move back up to our 2 percent goal within the next two years. All of which argue for getting on the normalization track. I also expect this to be a gradual process. This reflects the fact that the economy still needs a gentle shove forward from monetary policy, as we continue to navigate some headwinds—like weakness abroad—and their effects, particularly on the dollar and commodity prices. It also reflects my wish to take things slowly, to be able to adjust to circumstances and data as they come in. These projections take into account the headwinds, low growth, and low r* that come out of our models and are incorporated into the optimal control paths." Hawkish February 25, 2016 February 25, 2016
8  Loretta J. Mester Fed's Mester Says Gradual Rate Hikes Still Right Call for 2016: "Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester said fundamentals underlying the U.S. economy remain strong and the central bank should stay on track for a gradual tightening of monetary policy this year. “Whether we increase in March or not, that’s going to depend on the data and other people’s views around the table,” Mester said in an interview late Thursday in New York. “But my forecasts, and the risks around those forecasts, suggest we still want to see gradually rising interest rates.”" Hawkish February 25, 2016 February 26, 2016
9  James Bullard Fed's Bullard: Stock correction prevented bubble: "Explaining his inflation concerns, Bullard told CNBC Thursday he had thought last year that once oil prices stabilized inflation expectations would increase. "But then starting in November, we had another leg down in the oil markets," he said. "This is too low for comfort, and it's giving me pause."" Dovish February 25, 2016 February 25, 2016
10  Dennis P. Lockhart Fed's Lockhart Says Rising Rates to Create Risks for U.S. Banks: "“For the first time in more than a decade, bankers face the potential of operating in a rising rate environment,” Lockhart said in remarks at a banking conference in Atlanta on Thursday. “Rising rates will create challenges in managing net interest margins and risks...” The FOMC will be “data dependent” in weighing when to raise rates again, “assessing economic and financial conditions as they evolve,” Lockhart said. Low energy prices and concerns about China “have added new complexity” to assessing the U.S. outlook, he said." Neutral February 25, 2016 February 25, 2016
11  Jeffrey M. Lacker Can Monetary Policy Affect Economic Growth?: "Current estimates of the natural rate of interest in the United States are subject to a fair amount of uncertainty, but most are clustered at or just above zero. This is well above the actual real funds rate, which has been running below negative one.8 So at this point, estimates of the natural real rate of interest do not suggest that the zero lower bound is impeding the Fed’s ability to attain its 2 percent inflation objective. In fact, this perspective would bolster the case for raising the federal funds rate target." Hawkish February 24, 2016 February 24, 2016
12  Robert S. Kaplan Fed's Kaplan Says FOMC Can Take Its Time to Weigh Policy Move: "Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Robert Kaplan said recent inflation readings were encouraging, but urged patience in judging the ramifications of turbulent financial markets for the timing of the next interest-rate increase. “One of the things that you have as an asset is time,” he told reporters Wednesday after delivering remarks at an event in Dallas. “For me, I would like to take more time.”" Dovish February 24, 2016 February 24, 2016
13  James Bullard More on the Changing Imperatives for U.S. Monetary Policy Normalization: "I regard it as unwise to continue a normalization strategy in an environment of declining market-based inflation expectations."  Similar to Prior Statement Dovish February 24, 2016 February 24, 2016
14  Stanley Fischer Recent Monetary Policy Developments: "Now, with our next FOMC meeting just three weeks away, I expect most of you are less interested in what we did at our previous meetings, and more interested in what we are going to do at the next one. I can't answer that question because, as I have emphasized in the past, we simply do not know. The world is an uncertain place--sometimes more uncertain than at other times--and all monetary policymakers can really be sure of is that what will happen is often different from what we currently expect. That is why the Committee has indicated that its policy decisions will be data dependent, which is to say that we will adjust policy appropriately in light of economic and financial events to best foster conditions consistent with the attainment of our employment and inflation objectives." Neutral February 23, 2016 February 23, 2016
15  Esther L. George Fed's George Urges FOMC to Keep March on the Table for Rate Hike: "Federal Reserve policy makers should be prepared to consider raising interest rates in March despite recent financial market volatility, said Kansas City Fed President Esther George, whose outlook for solid growth this year remains intact. “It absolutely should be on the table” at the next meeting, George told Pimm Fox and Kathleen Hays in a Bloomberg Radio interview Tuesday from the bank. “At this point I would not say that the data have suggested there has been a fundamental shift in the outlook.”" Hawkish February 23, 2016 February 23, 2016
16  Robert S. Kaplan Dallas Fed chief Robert Kaplan urges caution on rate rises: "Now was a time for patience as the Federal Reserve seeks to understand the impact of financial market turbulence and slowing growth in other economies, said Mr Kaplan, who does not vote on Fed rates this year but takes part in the debate. “In order to reach our inflation objective we may need to be more patient than we previously might have thought,” he said. “If that means we take an extended period of time where we stop and don’t move, that may also be necessary. I am not prejudging that.”" (It is not clear on which date this interview took place. Dovish February 23, 2016 February 23, 2016
17  Neel Kashkari Fed's Kashkari expects moderate U.S. growth, inflation to rise: "Kashkari, a Republican who helped run the government's bank bailout during the financial crisis, used his first public appearances last week to announce an ambitious project to prevent future bank bailouts. He has so far said little about his views on the economy or monetary policy. Kashkari's remarks Tuesday suggest little differentiates his views from those of the center of the Fed's policy-setting committee. "We're getting data all the time. Some data is a little bit optimistic, some data is little bit pessimistic, but I think moderate economic outlook is still the base case," Kashkari said. "Moderate" is the term used by the Fed in its most recent statement to describe the pace of U.S. economic growth this year." Neutral February 23, 2016 February 23, 2016
18  John C. Williams Head of San Francisco Fed is still expecting modest economic growth, and more rate hikes: "Williams, in an interview with the Los Angeles Times, said the recent global developments certainly need to be closely monitored. But he said the “big picture for me hasn’t changed,” and his view on U.S. employment and inflation — the two key areas determining the Fed’s monetary policy — remains sanguine. “The basic approach we took, which is a gradual rate increase, is still right,” Williams said, while declining to predict whether he would support a rate hike at the Fed's next meeting March 15-16." (It is not clear on which date this interview took place.) Neutral February 22, 2016 February 22, 2016
19  Loretta J. Mester The Economy and Monetary Policy: "Given my outlook that the economy will work through this rough patch and resume a trajectory of moderate growth, with continued improvement in labor markets and a gradual return of inflation to 2 percent, I believe the appropriate policy path will involve gradual reductions over time in the extraordinary level of accommodation that was necessary to address the Great Recession. Even as policy gradually normalizes, it will likely need to remain accommodative for some time to come, given some of the forces still impacting our economy — for example, slow growth abroad, dollar appreciation, more restrictive financial conditions, and the continued rebalancing of supply and demand in the energy sector." Neutral February 19, 2016 February 19, 2016
20  Loretta J. Mester Fed's Mester upbeat on inflation, path of tightening: "Improving U.S inflation data and underlying strength in the economy should keep the Federal Reserve on track to gradually raise interest rates, Cleveland Federal Reserve President Loretta Mester said on Friday. "My feeling is the path of interest rates to support the economy is going to be still one where we gradually reduce the amount of accommodation," Mester told reporters following a speech at a Global Interdependence Center event in Sarasota, Florida." Hawkish February 19, 2016 February 19, 2016
21  John C. Williams The Right Profile: Economic Drivers and the Outlook: "This is just to put into context that when I look at my December forecast and compare it with my outlook for unemployment and core inflation today, there’s virtually no change. The shifts in my forecast amount to just one-tenth of a percentage point. I therefore continue to see a gradual pace of policy normalization as being the best course. My preferred route is a gradual path of increases. This reflects the fact that the economy still needs a gentle shove forward from monetary policy, as we continue to navigate the headwinds from weakness abroad and their effects on the dollar and commodity prices." Hawkish February 18, 2016 February 18, 2016
22  Neel Kashkari Neel Kashkari: Hated That We Had to Bail Out Banks: "We look at a lot of data. Chair Yellen and all Federal Reserve officials keep emphasizing that we're data-dependent. And every day more data comes in. We're paying attention to markets...We'll wait and see. Neutral February 17, 2016 February 17, 2016
23  Neel Kashkari Politics nothing to do with curbing big banks: Fed's Kashkari: "Kashkari was less specific on the question of interest rates, saying markets should focus less on the views of individual Fed officials and more on the central bank's policy-making committee. He backed the committee's expectation of "gradual" rate hikes and 2 percent inflation over "the medium term," adding he was concerned about low inflation in most major economies." Neutral February 17, 2016 February 17, 2016
24  Neel Kashkari Fed's Kashkari: We're in a 'pickle' over rates: "Citing the Fed's latest projections, Kashkari said policymakers see "moderate economic growth and inflation returning to target over the medium term." The Fed's target for inflation is 2 percent. "If that is the case, we would expect a gradual increase in interest rates," he said, but stressed the Fed's mantra of being data dependent. "Since January, the data has been mixed. We're going to keep watching the data and decide in March or beyond when is the right time to move."" Neutral February 17, 2016 February 17, 2016
25  James Bullard Changing Imperatives for U.S. Monetary Policy Normalization: "I regard it as unwise to continue a normalization strategy in an environment of declining market-based inflation expectations. I find arguments that these measures have declined due to changing risk premia or related factors unpersuasive because those analyses are too sensitive to the underlying assumptions." Dovish February 17, 2016 February 17, 2016
26  Eric S. Rosengren Prospects for Returning to More Conventional Monetary Policy: "In my own view, if inflation is slower to return to target, monetary policy normalization should be unhurried. A more gradual approach is an appropriate response to headwinds from abroad that slow exports, and financial volatility that raises the cost of funds to many firms. Of course, my view could change if we were to experience a more rapid abatement of headwinds, or much stronger domestic economic growth than I am currently anticipating." Dovish February 16, 2016 February 16, 2016
27  Patrick T. Harker 2016 Economic Forecast: "Harker was cautious when responding to questions on raising interest rates, saying that watching the trends of the coming months will be important to the decision-making process. “I don’t know exactly when it’s going to happen,” he said. “We really just need to follow the data.”" Neutral February 16, 2016 February 18, 2016
28  Patrick T. Harker An Economic Outlook: "Although I cannot give you a definitive path for how policy will evolve, it might prove prudent to wait until the inflation data are stronger before we undertake a second rate hike. Thus, I am approaching near-term policy a bit more cautiously than I did a few months ago... I believe as we move into the second half of the year with economic activity growing at trend or slightly above trend, the unemployment rate below its natural rate, and price pressures starting to assert themselves, policy can truly normalize. I mean this in the sense that we can move away meaningfully from the zero lower bound and that our reaction to incoming data can return to a more historical pattern." Dovish February 16, 2016 February 16, 2016
29  William C. Dudley Fed's Dudley dismisses negative US rates, sees economic momentum: "While recently tighter U.S. financial conditions will factor into the Federal Reserve's upcoming policy decisions, it is "extraordinarily premature" to even talk about using negative interest rates to stimulate the economy, a top Fed official said on Friday. "To me, that’s not something that should be part of the conversation right now," New York Fed President William Dudley told reporters at a news conference, when asked about possible use of negative rates." Hawkish February 12, 2016 February 12, 2016
30  Janet L. Yellen Federal Reserve Won’t Backpedal on Interest Rates, Janet Yellen Says: "“A lot has happened” since December, when the Fed predicted it would spend 2016 gradually raising rates, Ms. Yellen acknowledged. And risk-averse investors could disrupt slow-and-steady economic growth, she allowed. But her tone was far from bleak. Asked about the risk of a recession, Ms. Yellen responded that anything is possible but “expansions don’t die of old age.” She made clear that Fed officials were still debating when, not whether, they should raise rates again." Neutral February 11, 2016 February 11, 2016
31  Janet L. Yellen Janet Yellen Signals Caution on Rates: "Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen hinted to Congress Wednesday that the central bank had increased trepidation over the path of interest-rate increases, pointing to accumulating risks to the economy in recent weeks... “Financial conditions in the United States have recently become less supportive of growth,” Ms. Yellen said, pointing to stock-market declines and higher interest rates for riskier borrowers, among other events. She warned of a possible impact on economic activity and the labor market should the developments persist." Neutral February 10, 2016 February 10, 2016
32  Loretta J. Mester A Monetary Policymaker's Lexicon: "While the actual path the fed funds rate follows will depend on the economic outlook, and thus, will be data dependent, my current view is that economic conditions will evolve in a way that will warrant rates moving up gradually over time to more normal levels." Hawkish February 4, 2016 February 4, 2016
33  Robert S. Kaplan Fed's Kaplan calls for patience; traders see no 2016 rate hikes: "The Federal Reserve should be "patient" on interest rate increases, the new chief of the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank said on Thursday, joining a growing chorus of U.S. central bankers signaling rates may stay low for longer. "This is a time for patience and analysis, and really assessing data, because there has been some slowing," Robert Kaplan told reporters after speaking before the Real Estate Council in Dallas. "Certainly financial conditions have tightened, and we know that non-U.S. growth is weakening, and I have got to take that into account as a policymaker."" Dovish February 4, 2016 February 4, 2016
34  William C. Dudley Fed's Dudley to MNI: Tightening financial conditions a concern: ""One thing I think we can say with more confidence is that financial conditions are considerably tighter than they were at the time of the December meeting," said Dudley, a permanent voter on the Federal Open Market Committee, the Fed's monetary policy arm. "So if those financial conditions were to remain in place by the time we get to the March meeting, we would have to take that into consideration in terms of that monetary policy decision," he said." Dovish February 3, 2016 February 3, 2016
35  Esther L. George The U.S. Outlook and Monetary Policy: "If we wait for the data to provide complete confirmation before making a policy decision, we may well have waited too long. Likewise, policy may be faced with altering its trajectory if the economy’s progress points to a different outlook. But in the absence of any substantial shift in the outlook, my view is that the Committee should continue the gradual adjustment of moving rates higher to keep them aligned with economic activity and inflation. These actions are often difficult, but also necessary to keep growth in line with the economy’s long-run potential and to foster price stability." Hawkish February 2, 2016 February 2, 2016
36  Lael Brainard Fed’s Brainard Makes Case for ‘Watchful Waiting’: "Federal Reserve governor Lael Brainard thinks there are strong reasons to go slowly on further interest-rate increases... Her concern is that stresses in emerging markets including China and slow growth in developed economies could spill over to the U.S. “This translates into weaker exports, business investment and manufacturing in the United States, slower progress on hitting the inflation target, and financial tightening through the exchange rate and rising risk spreads on financial assets,” Ms. Brainard said Monday in response to questions from The Wall Street Journal. “Recent developments reinforce the case for watchful waiting,” she said." Dovish February 1, 2016 February 3, 2016
37  Stanley Fischer Recent Monetary Policy: "Now, I expect that in a few minutes one of you will ask not about what we did at our last meeting, but rather what we are going to do at the next one. I can't answer that question because, as I have emphasized in the past, we simply do not know. The world is an uncertain place, and all monetary policymakers can really be sure of is that what will happen is often different from what we currently expect. That is why the Committee has indicated that its policy decisions will be data dependent. That is, we will adjust policy appropriately in light of economic and financial events to best foster conditions consistent with the attainment of our employment and inflation objectives." Neutral February 1, 2016 February 1, 2016
38  John C. Williams Fed's Williams says sees 'smidgen' slower rate hikes: "The Federal Reserve probably needs to keep U.S. interest rates lower for longer given headwinds from weak global economic growth, a stronger dollar and an unexpectedly sustained drop in oil prices, a top Fed official suggested on Friday. San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams told reporters he now sees slightly slower growth, slightly higher unemployment, and about a tenth of a percent lower inflation this year than he had expected in December, when the Fed raised rates for the first time in nearly a decade." Dovish January 29, 2016 January 29, 2016
39  Robert S. Kaplan Fed will be patient on U.S. policy given global risks: Kaplan: "The Federal Reserve will be patient as it decides how trouble overseas could hit the U.S. economy, a Fed policymaker said in an interview, suggesting the central bank will be slower to raise interest rates this year. Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan said on Friday it was "significant" that the Fed decided this week to no longer describe the risks to the U.S. economy as being "balanced," a term that meant officials were comfortable with their view of the outlook." Dovish January 29, 2016 January 29, 2016
40  John C. Williams Fed is clearly on a path of returning rates to normal: Williams: "The Federal Reserve is clearly on a path of returning interest rates to a normal level of 3 percent to 3.5 percent over the next few years, a top Federal Reserve official said on Friday. Raising rates in December was the right thing to do, given the improvement in the labor market, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams said. Further and gradual rate increases "make sense" he said, although the exact timing of rate hikes will depend on the economic data." Hawkish January 29, 2016 January 29, 2016
41  John C. Williams Fed's Williams Sees Issues Abroad as Biggest U.S. Recession Risk: "The Fed retains the option to pause its hiking cycle to reassess economic conditions as it moves forward, Williams told reporters. During the panel, he said that he will “stick with the view that right now it’s going to take a gradual three-year process to get interest rates back to normal.”" Dovish January 15, 2016 January 15, 2016
42  William C. Dudley The U.S. Economic Outlook and Implications for Monetary Policy: "So what’s on the docket for monetary policy in 2016? The answer is that it depends on how the incoming data weighs on the outlook, and how changes in the outlook influence our views on the appropriate setting for monetary policy. What I can say is that our expectation at the December FOMC meeting was for further interest rate hikes in 2016 and beyond. Participants anticipated that the federal funds rate would likely continue on a gradual upward path. Over the longer term, FOMC participants expected that the federal funds rate would eventually reach 3 to 4 percent as inflation rose back to our 2 percent objective and the headwinds from the financial crisis that had been restraining economic activity fully dissipated." Neutral January 15, 2016 January 15, 2016
43  Eric S. Rosengren Boston Fed chief upbeat about region’s economy: "Rosengren, who this year becomes a voting member of the Open Market Committee, the Fed’s rate-setting panel, said policy makers will watch data closely as they determine if, when, and by how much to raise short-term interest rates. Last month, the Fed raised its benchmark short-term rate by a quarter-point after having held it near zero for seven years. “A lot of the weak data has been in the last two weeks,” Rosengren said. “We need more time to see how things shake out.”" Neutral January 15, 2016 January 18, 2016
44  James Bullard Fed's Bullard Says Oil's Fall May Delay Inflation Return to 2%: "Bullard told reporters after his speech that strong U.S. employment would argue that the FOMC’S median projection of rate increases totaling 1 percentage point this year is “about right,” while inflation and price expectations concerns “would tend to push off rate increases.” Bullard said he would put more weight on expectations if they continue to decline. “Generally speaking, the markets and the committee are not thinking in terms of a January move,” Bullard said. “As far as March, we would want to get more information and see how things play out before we make a judgment.”" Dovish January 14, 2016 January 14, 2016
45  Eric S. Rosengren Early Observations on Gradual Monetary Policy Normalization: "The future path of the federal funds rate will be highly dependent on our evolving outlook, which will, of course, respond to the incoming economic data. My hope is that the economy continues to improve, so that further normalization is appropriate. Further increases in rates are in my view likely to be gradual. Importantly, I will remain highly attentive to foreign economic conditions, any weakening of the domestic economic situation, and the path of U.S. inflation." Neutral January 13, 2016 January 13, 2016
46  Charles L. Evans Connecting the Dots on Monetary Policy: "Overall, I think appropriate policy is consistent with some of the most accommodative dots on the chart. One reason I arrive at this conclusion is because I am less optimistic about the inflation outlook than most of my colleagues. Given the persistently-low- inflation record of the past six years and given how slowly inflation evolves when it is at such low levels, it may be difficult to return inflation to target over the next two or three years. So I’m in favor of very gradual policy normalization to help ensure that we meet our inflation goal within a reasonable amount of time."  Similar to Prior Statement Dovish January 13, 2016 January 13, 2016
47  Jeffrey M. Lacker Economic Outlook, January 2016: "I agree that we are in a period of lower-than-average real interest rates, and that this has implications for monetary policy. The important point to recognize, however, is that actual real interest rates — at about negative 1 ¾ percent — are now substantially below estimates of the current natural rate, which as I noted are around zero. Moreover, while the natural interest rate is lower than usual right now, over time one might expect it to rise as it reverts toward its longer-run mean. So despite the relatively low natural real interest rate, there are still strong reasons to expect real short-term interest rates to rise in the near term."  Similar to Prior Statement Hawkish January 12, 2016 January 12, 2016
48  Dennis P. Lockhart Not likely enough new data for first quarter rate hike: Fed's Lockhart: "There may not be enough fresh data on inflation to support a second U.S. interest rate increase in January or March, Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Dennis Lockhart said on Monday in comments that help give shape to the Fed's possible rate path... "How much will we know about inflation trends or inflation developments going into the mid-March meeting? We will have some data but not a great deal more," Lockhart told reporters after a speech in Atlanta." Dovish January 11, 2016 January 11, 2016
49  Robert S. Kaplan Economic Conditions and Monetary Policy in a Changing World: "I believe that continuing along the path of monetary policy normalization is important. There are various costs to maintaining excessive accommodation for too long—particularly in terms of potential distortions in investment, inventory and hiring decisions, which may need to be (painfully) unwound when policy normalizes. My experience is that these imbalances are sometimes easier to recognize in hindsight." Hawkish January 11, 2016 January 11, 2016
50  Dennis P. Lockhart Post-Liftoff, Peering into 2016: "I'd like to be more definitive in predicting future rates, but the degree of uncertainty—particularly as regards global influences on our economy—affirms the wisdom, in my opinion, of letting the economic data do the talking. This means there is necessarily some tension between clarity of direction and policy optionality. It's not possible to max out both. I think the Committee has struck a reasonable balance under the current circumstances." Neutral January 11, 2016 January 11, 2016
51  Robert S. Kaplan Fed's Kaplan: four hikes not a sure thing in 2016: "Four U.S. interest-rate hikes are "not baked in the cake" for the Federal Reserve this year, particularly given global stock market volatility set off by fears over a cooling Chinese economy, a top Fed official said on Monday... Kaplan said he is not sure there will be enough economic data before the Fed's next policy meeting in late January to justify raising rates then, but "between now and March I think there will be."" Dovish January 11, 2016 January 11, 2016
52  John C. Williams After the First Rate Hike: "But if my aim is true and things evolve as expected, the path will look more like an airplane’s gentle ascension than a rocket shooting straight up: At that pace it will take nearly three years before the funds rate reaches a stable level. But even then, our cruising altitude, as it were, likely won’t be as high as in the past." Neutral January 8, 2016 January 8, 2016
53  Jeffrey M. Lacker Economic Outlook, January 2016: "I agree that we are in a period of lower-than-average real interest rates, and that this has implications for monetary policy. The important point to recognize, however, is that actual real interest rates — at about negative 1 ¾ percent — are now substantially below estimates of the current natural rate, which as I noted are around zero. Moreover, while the natural interest rate is lower than usual right now, over time one might expect it to rise as it reverts toward its longer-run mean. So despite the relatively low natural real interest rate, there are still strong reasons to expect real short-term interest rates to rise in the near term."  Similar to Prior Statement Hawkish January 8, 2016 January 8, 2016
54  Jeffrey M. Lacker Economic Outlook, January 2016: "I agree that we are in a period of lower-than-average real interest rates, and that this has implications for monetary policy. The important point to recognize, however, is that actual real interest rates — at about negative 1 ¾ percent — are now substantially below estimates of the current natural rate, which as I noted are around zero. Moreover, while the natural interest rate is lower than usual right now, over time one might expect it to rise as it reverts toward its longer-run mean. So despite the relatively low natural real interest rate, there are still strong reasons to expect real short-term interest rates to rise in the near term." Hawkish January 7, 2016 January 7, 2016
55  Charles L. Evans Connecting the Dots on Monetary Policy: "Overall, I think appropriate policy is consistent with some of the most accommodative dots on the chart. One reason I arrive at this conclusion is because I am less optimistic about the inflation outlook than most of my colleagues. Given the persistently-low- inflation record of the past six years and given how slowly inflation evolves when it is at such low levels, it may be difficult to return inflation to target over the next two or three years. So I’m in favor of very gradual policy normalization to help ensure that we meet our inflation goal within a reasonable amount of time." Dovish January 7, 2016 January 7, 2016
56  Stanley Fischer Fed's Fischer: Markets missing mark on future rates: "Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer told CNBC on Wednesday the financial markets are underestimating the trajectory of future interest rates. "We watch what the market thinks, but we can't be led by what the market thinks," Fischer told CNBC's "Squawk Box." He added that market expectations of the number of future rate hikes are "too low." According to the December median predictions from central bankers, the Fed may increase rates four more times this year." Hawkish January 6, 2016 January 6, 2016
57  Loretta J. Mester Fed's Mester Shrugs Off Stocks Drop and Says U.S. Economy Sound: "“Underlying fundamentals of the U.S. economy remain very sound,” Mester said Monday in an interview on Bloomberg Television. “There’s going to be volatility in the markets, that’s kind of the nature of financial markets.”... Mester said a weakening economy in China had already been built into the outlook for 2016 by Fed officials... “I don’t see that as a significant risk for the forecast,” she said." Hawkish January 4, 2016 January 4, 2016
58  John C. Williams Fed's Williams, unfazed by China, sees 3-5 rate hikes this year: "San Francisco Federal Reserve President John Williams said Monday he is unfazed by the weak economic data out of China that has spooked Wall Street, and sees three to five U.S. interest rate hikes this year as reasonable given the strength of the U.S. economy. "In terms of those developments ricocheting into the U.S. economy, I think we have really really strong fundamentals, in terms of consumer spending, in terms of our economic trajectory, so right now at least this isn't a big concern for me," said Williams, one of the few Fed officials who regularly visits China for a first-hand look at the world's second-largest economy. For 2016, "I think something in that three to five rate hike range makes sense at least at this time," Williams said in an interview on CNBC." Hawkish January 4, 2016 January 4, 2016
59  Loretta J. Mester The U.S. Economy and Monetary Policy: "In summary, the economy has made substantial progress toward the Fed’s goals of maximum employment and price stability – enough progress that in December the FOMC moved its target federal funds rate up by 25 basis points from essentially zero, where it had stood for 7 years. Even with this increase, monetary policy is expected to remain accommodative for some time to come and will continue to support the expansion." Neutral January 3, 2016 January 3, 2016
60  Loretta J. Mester Fed's Mester prefers a bit quicker U.S. rate-hike pace: "Loretta Mester, president of the Cleveland Fed, told Reuters in an interview she does not need to see clear evidence of inflation to back more policy tightening after an initial rate hike in mid-December. The Fed could act at any policy meeting, including one later in January, she said. After lifting rates for the first time in nearly a decade, the Fed said further moves would be gradual and dependent on how the world's top economy performs. The central bank last month forecasted four rate hikes in 2016, based on the median projection of its 17 top officials... "I'm probably a little steeper than that in the near term, just because I have a higher growth forecast."" Hawkish January 3, 2016 January 3, 2016
61  Narayana Kocherlakota A Swan Song for the Fed Dove Who Once Was a Hawk: "Mr. Kocherlakota said in the interview, after the Fed decision, that raising rates while falling short of the inflation target was wrong." (It is not clear on which date the interview took place.) Dovish December 29, 2015 December 29, 2015
62  Dennis P. Lockhart Atlanta Fed prez: Judge us on rate hike in a year: "As those challenges subside and as a more normal economy developed, to me, it became more and more clear that it was time to normalize interest rates. Now, exactly what normal interest rates look like remains to be seen. And will be a question of how the economy performs. But I and my colleagues believe that zero is not normal." (The interview did not actually take place on December 23rd, but the article doesn't say when it happened.) Neutral December 23, 2015 December 23, 2015
63  Dennis P. Lockhart Fed's Lockhart Suggests Pace of Four Rate Increases Over a Year: "“Moving up gradually means not every meeting, in all likelihood,” Lockhart said in an interview Monday with WABE, the Atlanta public broadcasting radio station. “The rate of rising interest rates will be more like every other meeting.”" Hawkish December 21, 2015 December 21, 2015
64  John C. Williams Fed's Williams wants low rates, hot economy in 2016: "The Federal Reserve aims to keep the U.S. economy running hot next year to boost the job market and inflation, a top central banker said, and to achieve that goal interest-rate hikes will be slow but will not follow any predictable pattern. "Every meeting will truly be live in terms of adjusting policy one way or the other," San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams told Reuters in an interview, referring to the Fed's policy-setting meetings." Neutral December 18, 2015 December 18, 2015
65  Esther L. George Fed’s policy shift finds KC’s Esther George back in the voting rotation: "“It’s late,” George said of the Fed’s December interest rate boost in an interview two days after the event. “We’ve been at zero for a long time.”" Hawkish December 18, 2015 January 12, 2016
66  Jerome H. Powell A conversation with a Federal Reserve Governor: "We call the process of raising interest rates the normalization process. And so this represents a judgment that we have reached the point at which we can depart from the zero lower bound and begin a gradual process of increasing interest rates. So the reason why you need to do that is that monetary policy -- little things like a 25 basis point increase aren't gonna have a major impact. But over time monetary policy does have a very big impact on the economy and it does so over long periods of time with lags and gaps. So if you so-called "get behind" on monetary policy, you have to raise interest rates too sharply and that can cause a recession. So the right way to go, I think, is to start now with a very small increase and move very gradually to avoid that." Neutral December 18, 2015 December 18, 2015
67  Jeffrey M. Lacker Fed's Lacker says four rate hikes in 2016 would be "gradual": "Federal Reserve forecasts pointing to four interest rate hikes in 2016 show what the U.S. central bank means when it says it anticipates raising rates at a "gradual pace," Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker said on Friday. "That's half the rate at which we raised rates in the last tightening cycle. So that's what 'gradual' means to me," Lacker told reporters in Charlotte, North Carolina after participating in a business panel discussion." Hawkish December 18, 2015 December 18, 2015
68  Jeffrey M. Lacker Lacker: Next rate hike could come at any meeting: "I think [the rate hike is] a sign of the strength of the US economy. I think it's a fundamentally positive reflection of how far we've come since the recession." Neutral December 18, 2015 December 18, 2015
69  James Bullard Fed official: Not raising rates in September was a 'mistake': "I will argue for a move in December. I don’t want to prejudge what the committee might do, but that will be my position." (It is not clear whether the interview actually took place on December 7th.) Hawkish December 7, 2015 December 7, 2015
70  Dennis P. Lockhart The State of the Sunshine Economy: "I think I'll be in a position to support that decision [raising interest rates in the December FOMC meeting] providing leading up to the meeting nothing drastically changes in the current position of the economy or the outlook." (It is not clear on which date this interview actually took place.) Hawkish December 7, 2015 December 7, 2015
71  Dennis P. Lockhart Fed's Lockhart: Markets well-prepared for liftoff: "The economic conditions are satisfactory and the financial markets are well-prepared for the Federal Reserve to increase interest rates next week, Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart said Monday. The economy is on a "solid, moderate path," growing closer to 2 percent than 3 percent, Lockhart said on CNBC's "Squawk Box." Lockhart, a centrist, is a voting member on the Federal Open Market Committee policymaking group." Hawkish December 7, 2015 December 7, 2015
72  Dennis P. Lockhart Fed’s Lockhart Says He Is Ready for Interest-Rate Liftoff: ""I'm ready for a decision to lift off" and push rates up from the near-zero setting they have rested at since December 2008, he told The Wall Street Journal. "I'm satisfied" the criteria set by the Fed to determine when to raise rates "have been substantially met."" Hawkish December 7, 2015 December 7, 2015
73  Patrick T. Harker The New Normal for the U.S. Economy: "Accordingly, I would like to see rates raised sooner rather than later. With an early start, we can better ensure that monetary accommodation is removed gradually and that inflation returns to the Fed’s 2 percent target smoothly. My fear is that the Federal Reserve risks losing its credibility and only adds uncertainty to the economic landscape the longer the Committee waits to begin normalizing policy. Therefore, raising rates this year will, in my view, serve to reduce monetary policy uncertainty and to keep the economy on track for sustained growth with price stability." Hawkish December 4, 2015 December 4, 2015
74  James Bullard Permazero as a Possible Medium-term Outcome for the U.S. and the G-7: "I continue to be an advocate for beginning policy normalization. My argument has been that the FOMC’s goals have been met, while the FOMC’s policy settings remain extreme."  Similar to Prior Statement Hawkish December 4, 2015 December 4, 2015
75  Loretta J. Mester Top Fed official: The economy can handle a rate increase: "We have about two weeks to go. We’re going to of course look at the data that comes in over those two weeks. But my read of the data is consistent with what I send in my speech a few weeks ago: The economy can handle an increase in interest rates." (It is not clear on which date the interview actually took place.) Hawkish December 4, 2015 December 4, 2015
76  Janet L. Yellen Economic Outlook: "Were the FOMC to delay the start of policy normalization for too long, we would likely end up having to tighten policy relatively abruptly to keep the economy from significantly overshooting both of our goals. Such an abrupt tightening would risk disrupting financial markets and perhaps even inadvertently push the economy into recession. Moreover, holding the federal funds rate at its current level for too long could also encourage excessive risk-taking and thus undermine financial stability."  Similar to Prior Statement Hawkish December 3, 2015 December 3, 2015
77  Dennis P. Lockhart Assessing Economic Conditions for Liftoff: "There are two weeks to go, with additional data still to arrive. That said, absent information that drastically changes the economic picture and outlook, I feel the case for liftoff is compelling." Hawkish December 2, 2015 December 2, 2015
78  John C. Williams Dancing Days Are Here Again: The Long Road Back to Maximum Employment: "From my perspective, the song remains the same: We’ve made remarkable progress and the economy is on the cusp of full health. The first step in bringing policy closer to normal was when we ended QE. The next appropriate step is to raise rates. My preference is sooner rather than later for a few reasons." Hawkish December 2, 2015 December 2, 2015
79  Janet L. Yellen The Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy: "Were the FOMC to delay the start of policy normalization for too long, we would likely end up having to tighten policy relatively abruptly to keep the economy from significantly overshooting both of our goals. Such an abrupt tightening would risk disrupting financial markets and perhaps even inadvertently push the economy into recession. Moreover, holding the federal funds rate at its current level for too long could also encourage excessive risk-taking and thus undermine financial stability." Hawkish December 2, 2015 December 2, 2015
80  Lael Brainard Normalizing Monetary Policy When the Neutral Interest Rate Is Low: "The lower neutral rate means the normalization of the federal funds rate is likely to follow a more gradual and shallower path than in previous cycles, although the actual path will be determined by economic conditions. It also implies that the likelihood of the federal funds rate hitting the zero lower bound will be persistently greater than it has been previously, which could make it more difficult to achieve our objectives of full employment and 2 percent inflation. With the nominal neutral interest rate lower than in the past, and with policy options being more limited if conditions deteriorate than if inflationary pressures accelerate, the asymmetry in risk-management considerations counsels a cautious and gradual approach." Dovish December 1, 2015 December 1, 2015
81  Charles L. Evans The Case for a Slow Return to Monetary Policy Normalization: "Should we raise rates or not? I admit to some nervousness about our upcoming decision. Before raising rates, I would prefer to have more confidence than I do today that inflation is indeed beginning to head higher. Given the current low level of core inflation, some evidence of true upward momentum in actual inflation would bolster my confidence. I am concerned, however, that it could be well into next year before the headwinds from lower energy prices and the stronger dollar dissipate enough so that we begin to see some sustained upward movement in core inflation."  Similar to Prior Statement Dovish December 1, 2015 December 1, 2015
82  Jeffrey M. Lacker Richmond Fed President Jeffrey M. Lacker: case has strengthened to raise interest rates: "It does seem now that job market conditions continue to improve at a very healthy clip. I think the employment report for October is what, in the minds of many observers, has sealed the case for a rate increase. Of course, a lot can happen between now and then, and there is some more data to come in, but I think the case has been strengthened since September." (It is not clear on what date this interview took place.) Hawkish November 28, 2015 November 28, 2015
83  Esther L. George Raising Interest Rates: Heartaches by the Number: "“The language has shifted from ‘patient’ to ‘data-dependent,’ ” George says. “No matter when it happens, in my view, it’s time. The sooner we start, the more options we’ll have for a gradual move. Waiting for an all-clear signal raises a risk of other issues arising.”" (It isn't clear on which date George made this statement.) Hawkish November 25, 2015 November 25, 2015
84  Daniel K. Tarullo Fed's Tarullo Remains Worried by Low Inflation Despite Job Gains: "Federal Reserve Governor Daniel Tarullo said economic data received since the central bank met in September had been mixed, as continued low U.S. inflation tempered his enthusiasm over progress made this year in lowering unemployment. “The U.S. economy seems still to be chugging along with modestly above-trend growth,” Tarullo said Monday in an interview on Bloomberg Television. “We’ve certainly seen continued improvement in the labor market, but the environment for inflation is still one where there is still a lot of uncertainty.”" Neutral November 23, 2015 November 23, 2015
85  John C. Williams Fed's Williams Sees ‘Strong Case’ for Dec. Increase If Data Hold Up: "“Assuming that we continue to get good data on the economy, continue to get signs that we’re moving closer to achieving our goals” and are gaining confidence that inflation will move back toward the Fed’s 2 percent target, there’s “a strong case that can be made in December to raise rates,” Williams said, speaking with reporters at the University of California at Berkeley on Saturday." Hawkish November 21, 2015 November 21, 2015
86  William C. Dudley Dudley says Fed should 'soon' be ready to raise rates: "Dudley did not say directly that he expected to move before year end, a comment he has made in the past. "I can't tell you when we're going to do it because it will depend on the data," said Dudley, a close ally of Fed Chair Yellen and a permanent voter on the policy-making Federal Open Market Committee. "We have a month until the next FOMC meeting so my view is let's see what the data is over the next four weeks."" Neutral November 20, 2015 November 20, 2015
87  James Bullard Fed's Bullard Signals Imminent Rate Hike: "St. Louis Fed President James Bullard on Friday signaled that a rate hike is coming “soon,” but offered no specifics. Instead, he pointed to the Fed’s statement from its October meeting. “In October, the [policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee] removed the key sentence citing global factors and suggested that the zero interest rate policy could be ended soon, depending on incoming data,” Bullard said in prepared remarks during a speech in Arkansas."  Similar to Prior Statement Hawkish November 20, 2015 November 20, 2015
88  Dennis P. Lockhart Outlook and Policy Views: "So, I'm comfortable with moving off zero soon, conditioned on no marked deterioration in economic conditions. Given my reading of current conditions and my outlook views, I believe it will soon be appropriate to begin a new policy phase." Hawkish November 19, 2015 November 19, 2015
89  Loretta J. Mester Fed's Mester: Policymakers aren't boxed in on rates: "While the Federal Reserve has been telegraphing the possibility of an interest rate increase next month, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said Thursday policymakers are not boxed in to move. But she said, "Things are on track." Appearing on CNBC's "Squawk Box," Mester said the Fed is trying to be as transparent as it can about the option to hike rates if economic conditions warrant an increase. She believes the economy can absorb the first rate hike in nine years." Hawkish November 19, 2015 November 19, 2015
90  Stanley Fischer Emerging Asia in Transition: "In the relatively near future probably some major central banks will begin gradually moving away from near-zero interest rates. The question here is whether the emerging market countries of Asia--and, indeed, of the world--are sufficiently prepared for these decisions, to the extent that potential capital flows and market adjustments can take place without major macroeconomic consequences. While we continue to scrutinize incoming data, and no final decisions have been made, we have done everything we can to avoid surprising the markets and governments when we move, to the extent that several emerging market (and other) central bankers have, for some time, been telling the Fed to "just do it."" Neutral November 19, 2015 November 19, 2015
91  Robert S. Kaplan A Discussion of Economic Conditions and Federal Reserve Policy: "In light of all these factors, it will likely be appropriate that U.S. monetary policy remain accommodative for some time...However, accommodative policy does not necessarily mean a zero fed funds rate. There are various costs to maintaining a zero fed funds rate for too long—particularly in terms of potential distortions in investment and business decisions...These are all issues that will have to be assessed and reassessed as the economic outlook unfolds. In my view, the FOMC—in the previous two meetings—has been prudent in waiting for more data before taking policy action." Neutral November 18, 2015 November 18, 2015
92  Dennis P. Lockhart Fed officials again flag December; see smooth rates liftoff: ""I am now reasonably satisfied the situation has settled down ... So I am comfortable with moving off zero soon, conditioned on no marked deterioration in economic conditions," Lockhart told a conference of bankers, traders and regulators. "I believe it will soon be appropriate to begin a new policy phase," he said, adding he will monitor economic data between now and a meeting on Dec. 15-16, for which he has a vote on policy." Hawkish November 18, 2015 November 18, 2015
93  Loretta J. Mester Lockhart, Dudley, Mester Discuss Economy, Fed Policy: "My own view is, looking at the data we've received so far, is that yes, I think the economy can handle a 25-basis point increase." (45:45 in the video) Hawkish November 18, 2015 November 18, 2015
94  Jeffrey M. Lacker Lacker: Fed audit 'high-frequency harassment': "Lacker, a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee this year, was the lone dissenter last month, saying the economy was strong enough to handle a rate increase. He was also the only dissenter at the FOMC's September meeting, which saw the Fed keeping rates steady, in part because of global growth concerns sparked by China. Making his case for a hike, Lacker said consumer spending growth has been "exceptionally strong."" Hawkish November 18, 2015 November 18, 2015
95  James Bullard Fed faces the risk of waiting too long: "As James Bullard, the president of the St Louis Fed, put it in an interview with the Financial Times: “You would like to not be feeding into the process of bubble formation with low rates. You would like to hedge your bets against that by edging rates up some, then that will take off some of the risk.”" (It is not clear on which date this interview took place.) Hawkish November 16, 2015 November 16, 2015
96  Loretta J. Mester Perspectives on the Economy and Monetary Policy: "In summary, the economy has made considerable progress over the expansion and my medium-run outlook is for above-trend growth, continued improvement in labor markets, and inflation gradually returning to our 2 percent target over the medium run. If incoming economic information continues to support this forecast, then in my view it will be time to take the first step in the policy normalization process." Hawkish November 13, 2015 November 13, 2015
97  Charles L. Evans A Cautious Approach to Monetary Policy Normalization: "More specifically, before raising rates, I would like to have more confidence than I do today that inflation is indeed beginning to head higher. Given the current low level of core inflation, some evidence of true upward momentum in actual inflation is critical to this assessment. I believe that it could be well into next year before the headwinds from lower energy prices and the stronger dollar dissipate enough so that we begin to see some sustained upward movement in core inflation. After liftoff, I think it would be appropriate to raise the target interest rate very gradually."  Similar to Prior Statement Dovish November 12, 2015 November 12, 2015
98  James Bullard Rethinking Monetary Policy: "A simple and prudent approach to current policy is to move the policy settings closer to normal levels now that the goals of policy have been attained. There is no reason to continue to experiment with extreme policy settings." Hawkish November 12, 2015 November 12, 2015
99  William C. Dudley Dudley Q&A: Liftoff Shouldn't Wait Til 'Whites of Infl's Eyes': ""Monetary policy works with a long and variable lag," said William Dudley, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and vice chair of the Fed's policy-setting Open Market Committee, answering a moderator's questions following a luncheon presentation to the Economic Club of New York. "Personally, I don't favor waiting until I see the whites of inflation's eyes." Dudley, who while New York Fed president is also a permanent voting member of the FOMC, went on to say that delaying the start of rate tightening and raising by an initial 50 basis points rather than 25, would "risk a hard landing on the other side."" Neutral November 12, 2015 November 12, 2015
100  Eric S. Rosengren FT interview with Eric Rosengren: "My own personal view is we should have a flexible approach to thinking about the path with gradual being the important consideration, but we are still not near 2 per cent inflation. By the core PCE at 1.3 per cent we are still pretty far away. What gives me reasonable confidence about the path of inflation is the fact that the labour market slack seems to be diminishing relatively quickly. But I would want to continue to see progress on wages and prices moving up. If we weren’t seeing wages and prices moving up over time our willingness to keep raising rates would go down." Neutral November 12, 2015 November 15, 2015
101  William C. Dudley Waiting too long on inflation heightens risks: Fed's Dudley: "Waiting for inflation to pick up before quickly tightening monetary policy heightens the risk of an economic hard landing, New York Fed President William Dudley said on Thursday. "I don't favor waiting until I sort of see the whites in inflation's eyes," said Dudley, who has a permanent vote on the Fed's policy-setting committee." Hawkish November 12, 2015 November 13, 2015
102  Stanley Fischer The Transmission of Exchange Rate Changes to Output and Inflation: "The October 2015 FOMC statement indicated that it may be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate at the next meeting in December, though the outcome will depend on the Committee's assessment of the progress--realized and expected--that has been made toward meeting our goals of maximum employment and price stability." Neutral November 12, 2015 November 12, 2015
103  William C. Dudley The U.S. Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy: "I see the risks right now of moving too quickly versus moving too slowly as nearly balanced. The weight that one puts on each undoubtedly influences one’s views on when the time will be right to begin to normalize monetary policy and the appropriate short-term rate trajectory thereafter." Neutral November 12, 2015 November 12, 2015
104  Jeffrey M. Lacker Why Jeffrey Lacker Is Worried About Inflation: "I can’t predict the meeting and what my colleagues will do, but it does look like the recent data, and particularly the October employment report, has strengthened the case for raising rates. I’ve thought the case was strong for over six months now. I’m hoping I can be more persuasive in December." Hawkish November 11, 2015 November 12, 2015
105  Charles L. Evans Fed's Evans: Looking forward to time when Fed can raise rates: "He also suggested the Fed needs to be careful not to raise rates if it will just have to lower them again shortly afterward, a theme he has hit time and again as he as argued against the rate hike that the Fed is currently considering. The Fed has kept rates near zero for nearly seven years since the 2007-09 financial crisis. "I think it's extraordinarily costly to contemplate a high probability that we're going to revisit the zero lower bound, after a period where we've gotten ourselves out of this, over the next 10 years," he said." Dovish November 10, 2015 November 10, 2015
106  Eric S. Rosengren "Assessing the Economy’s Progress": "As the October FOMC statement indicated, all future Committee meetings – including December’s – could be an appropriate time for raising rates, as long as the economy continues to improve as expected. However, with inflation still below the target, I believe the path of increases should be gradual, once we do move off the zero lower bound." Neutral November 9, 2015 November 9, 2015
107  John C. Williams Monday's Top Stories in the United States: "Williams wouldn't tell reporters if he favored raising rates at the next meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, saying, "We've got a lot of data coming between October and December." He also said he is not inclined to react to one strong employment report, referring to the 271,000 jobs gains in October as reported Friday. Even though the FOMC has been looking for higher wage pressures as they look to become more confident inflation is moving back to the 2% target, Williams said he's "not going to get all jumping up and down because we saw a nice number on wages this time." But asked by MNI about the pace of rates after liftoff Williams, a voter this year on the FOMC, said relative to the last time the Fed raised rates, "My expectation given the headwinds to the economy, given how fundamentally the economy can't handle high interest rates now and still have this rate of growth, that we're going to move, I would expect, slower than that."" Dovish November 7, 2015 November 9, 2015
108  John C. Williams All’s Well That Ends Better: The Outlook, Education, and the Future of the American Economy: "My forecast is that we’ll reach our maximum employment mandate in the near future and I’m increasingly confident that inflation will gradually move back to our 2 percent goal. It makes sense, therefore, to start gradually moving away from the extraordinary stimulus that got us here. We already took a step in that direction when we ended QE3. Given the progress we continue to make on our goals, I view the next appropriate step as the start of a process of gradually raising interest rates. That’s the “how”; as I said, the data will determine the “when.”" Hawkish November 7, 2015 November 7, 2015
109  Charles L. Evans Fed's Evans: We may be ripe for rate hike, but...: "Chicago Federal Reserve President Charles Evans said Friday the much stronger-than-expected October employment report is "very good news," but he's still not ready to say it's time for an interest-rate hike. In a CNBC interview shortly after the Labor Department released the jobs report, Evans said the data support his 2016 economic outlook of 2.5 percent growth." Neutral November 6, 2015 November 6, 2015
110  Charles L. Evans Monday's Top Stories in the United States: "While his preference would still be to delay raising short-term interest rates until the middle of next year, Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans suggested Friday he could go along with an initial rate hike in December if that's what a majority of Fed policymakers want, provided they make clear rates will rise only slowly and gradually. Evans, in an exclusive interview with MNI, said he is "not predisposed" to dissent against a hike in the federal funds rate from near zero at the Dec. 15-16 meeting of the Fed's rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee. A voting member of the FOMC, Evans said the committee has gotten "closer" to liftoff from the zero lower bound." Hawkish November 6, 2015 November 9, 2015
111  James Bullard Issues that deterred Fed from September rate hike largely disappeared: Bullard: "The worries about China and other global problems that caused the Fed to delay an interest rate hike in September have largely passed, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said on Friday, spelling out the arguments for a rate hike when the Fed meets next month." Hawkish November 6, 2015 November 6, 2015
112  Lael Brainard Unconventional Monetary Policy and Cross-Border Spillovers: "Looking ahead, a further weakening of foreign growth could pose downside risks to the U.S. outlook. Under normal circumstances, policy in the United States could adjust to signs that spillovers from developments abroad were affecting activity in the United States. But with policy rates in the United States at the lower bound, the ability to offset spillovers from adverse developments in foreign economies with conventional policy is constrained, suggesting greater caution than normal." Dovish November 6, 2015 November 6, 2015
113  James Bullard Exclusive: Fed faces challenge of how to justify possible slowdown in jobs growth - Bullard: "In an interview with Reuters, Bullard said U.S. central bankers may need to mount a new communications campaign to convince markets and the public of a counter-intuitive idea: that slowing monthly job growth is natural at this point in the recovery, and will allow the Fed to stay on track for a likely December rate hike." Hawkish November 5, 2015 November 5, 2015
114  Dennis P. Lockhart The Transition from Extraordinary to "Normal": "I expect to see a subsiding of the risks that appropriately led, in my opinion, to a policy hold in September and October. I think the case for liftoff will continue to firm up." Hawkish November 5, 2015 November 5, 2015
115  Esther L. George Oklahoma, U.S. economies headed in opposite directions, expert says: "George, who is a nonvoting member this year, said she would have already voted to raise interest rates. The federal funds target rate has been between zero and 0.25 percent since late 2008. George said zero interest rates are not a historically normal rate. "It is time, when you have had an expansion for five years, to get off of zero interest rates," George said." Hawkish November 5, 2015 November 6, 2015
116  William C. Dudley Dudley,Yellen concur: December in play for rate hike: "New York Fed President William Dudley, addressing reporters, said he would "completely agree" with Fed Chair Janet Yellen who had earlier said December is in play for a policy tightening if the economic data points to further improvement in the labor market and to a rebound in inflation." Hawkish November 4, 2015 November 4, 2015
117  Lael Brainard Fed hike 'very dependent' on incoming data: Brainard: "The U.S. economy is gaining some strength but a stronger dollar has already tightened financial conditions and the Federal Reserve's first rate hike in nearly a decade will depend on incoming data, Fed Governor Lael Brainard said on Wednesday." Neutral November 4, 2015 November 4, 2015
118  Janet L. Yellen Yellen Signals a Fed Tilt Toward December Rate Increase: "“It could be appropriate” to act at the Fed’s final policy-making meeting of the year, Ms. Yellen told the House Financial Services Committee. She suggested that if growth continued apace, the Fed was inclined to start raising interest rates, although she added the cautionary note that “no decision has been made.”" Hawkish November 4, 2015 November 4, 2015
119  Jeffrey M. Lacker Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker Comments on FOMC Dissent: "I dissented because I believe that an increase in our interest rate target is needed, given current economic conditions and the medium-term outlook. My assessment is essentially unchanged from the Committee’s September meeting, at which I also dissented." Hawkish October 30, 2015 October 30, 2015
120  John C. Williams Fed official: Central bank has made no decision on rate hike: "A voting member of the Federal Reserve cautioned Friday that the Fed has yet to decide when to raise interest rates even though it issued a statement this week that said a rate hike was possible in December. John Williams, president of the Fed's San Francisco regional bank, said he wants to study more economic data in coming weeks before deciding whether the economy is strong enough for the Fed to raise its key short-term rate from a record low, where it's been for seven years." Neutral October 30, 2015 October 30, 2015
121  John C. Williams Fed's Williams Upbeat on Economy, But Doesn't Signal Timing of Rate Rise: ""I do see the time to start raising rates in the near future," Mr. Williams said, although he added that "we are going to watch the data" to determine when to act. When it comes to boosting borrowing costs off the rock-bottom levels they have been at since the end of 2008, "it's one of those things I've described as a close call," and "the arguments on both sides have a lot of merit."" Hawkish October 19, 2015 October 19, 2015
122  Loretta J. Mester Fed’s Mester: I think the economy can handle a rate increase: "I can say that I think the economy can handle a rate increase." Hawkish October 16, 2015 October 16, 2015
123  William C. Dudley NY Fed's Dudley says too early to think about a rate rise: paper: "It is too early to consider an interest rate rise in the United States due to concerns about global economic growth, New York Federal Reserve Bank President William Dudley was quoted as saying by an Italian newspaper on Monday... "It's true we thought we could raise interest rates by the end of 2015, but turbulence on financial markets, modest global growth, energy prices and macro-prudential imbalances are slowing this process down." He added that it was "still too early to think about raising interest rates"." Dovish October 15, 2015 October 19, 2015
124  Loretta J. Mester Long-Run Economic Growth: "Based on my current assessment of the outlook and the risks around the outlook, I believe the economy can handle an increase in the fed funds rate and that it is appropriate for monetary policy to take a step back from the emergency measure of zero interest rates. A small increase in interest rates from zero is not tight monetary policy." Hawkish October 15, 2015 October 15, 2015
125  William C. Dudley Fed's Dudley: Rate Hike Could Come This Year: "New York Federal Reserve President William Dudley on Thursday reiterated his view that interest rates could move higher before the end of the year even as the economy appears to be slowing." Hawkish October 15, 2015 October 15, 2015
126  Jeffrey M. Lacker Fed’s Lacker: My views haven't changed much since September: "Well, I think the higher sustained growth we've seen in real consumer spending strongly suggests that real interest rates need to be higher than they are now. It seems unlikely that real interest rates where they are -- at below -1% inflation-adjusted interest rates -- is going to be sustainable with this stretch of consumer spending growth at this pace." Hawkish October 14, 2015 October 14, 2015
127  Daniel K. Tarullo Fed's Tarullo: Rate hike likely tough this year: "The U.S. economy likely would not support an interest rate hike this year without signs inflation and wages are increasing, a top Federal Reserve official said Tuesday. "I wouldn't expect it would be appropriate to raise rates," Fed Governor Daniel Tarullo told CNBC." Dovish October 13, 2015 October 13, 2015
128  James Bullard Bullard says 'tough' for Fed to reverse course and hike rates in October: ""It is very tough for the committee to make a big decision and then change it after only one meeting," Bullard said. "Roughly speaking the data has not been that different from what would have been expected, and the jobs report was weaker."" Dovish October 13, 2015 October 13, 2015
129  James Bullard More on Three Challenges to Central Bank Orthodoxy: "A prudent monetary policy based on traditional central banking principles would begin to return policy settings to normal levels over the medium term."  Similar to Prior Statement Hawkish October 13, 2015 October 13, 2015
130  Charles L. Evans Risks Call for a Gradual Approach to Normalizing Policy: "Before raising rates, I would like to have more confidence than I do today that inflation is indeed beginning to head higher. Given the current low level of core inflation, some evidence of true upward momentum in actual inflation is critical to this assessment. I believe that it could well be the middle of next year before the headwinds from lower energy prices and the stronger dollar dissipate enough so that we begin to see some sustained upward movement in core inflation. After liftoff, I think it would be appropriate to raise the target interest rate very gradually."  Similar to Prior Statement Dovish October 12, 2015 October 12, 2015
131  Dennis P. Lockhart Lockhart Says Improving U.S. Job Market Supports '15 Liftoff: "Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Dennis Lockhart said an improving U.S. job market warrants an interest-rate increase this year, reinforcing the message from other officials in recent days that they remain on track for liftoff in 2015. "We are getting much closer to the finish line from the point of view of whatever you would consider full employment," Lockhart told reporters Monday after a speech in Orlando, Florida. "I would expect to continue to make progress. So the beginning of normalization of interest rates I think is quite justifiable in the context of continuing progress of multiple measures of employment."" Hawkish October 12, 2015 October 12, 2015
132  Lael Brainard Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy: "For these reasons, I view the risks to the economic outlook as tilted to the downside. The downside risks make a strong case for continuing to carefully nurture the U.S. recovery--and argue against prematurely taking away the support that has been so critical to its vitality." Dovish October 12, 2015 October 12, 2015
133  Charles L. Evans Fed's Evans sees 'wiggle room' on rate hike timing: ""I still think that the best choice is middle of 2016 until I see data that are stronger that lead me to have more confidence in inflation," he said. The Fed could probably make an earlier start to rate hikes "without probably doing much adverse effect on my outlook," he said, adding that he sees "wiggle room" on the timing." Neutral October 12, 2015 October 12, 2015
134  Stanley Fischer U.S. Economy and Monetary Policy: "The September statement notes that we are monitoring developments abroad. Nonetheless, we do not currently anticipate that the effects of these recent developments on the U.S. economy will prove to be large enough to have a significant effect on the path for policy. That said, recent employment reports have been somewhat disappointing and, as always, we are closely monitoring developments that could affect our sense of the economic outlook and the risks surrounding that outlook." Hawkish October 11, 2015 October 11, 2015
135  Charles L. Evans Monetary Policy: Avoiding the Hazards: "Before raising rates, I would like to have more confidence than I do today that inflation is indeed beginning to head higher. Given the current low level of core inflation, some evidence of true upward momentum in actual inflation is critical to this assessment. I believe that it could well be the middle of next year before the headwinds from lower energy prices and the stronger dollar dissipate enough so that we begin to see some sustained upward movement in core inflation. After liftoff, I think it would be appropriate to raise the target interest rate very gradually."  Similar to Prior Statement Dovish October 9, 2015 October 9, 2015
136  Dennis P. Lockhart An Economic Narrative: "To wrap up, I believe the economy remains on a satisfactory track, and, speaking for myself, I see a liftoff decision later this year at the October or December FOMC meetings as likely appropriate. However, the data are giving off varied signals, and there is more ambiguity in the current moment than a few weeks ago." Hawkish October 9, 2015 October 9, 2015
137  William C. Dudley Fed's Dudley still expects 2015 rate rise: "Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William Dudley told television network CNBC on Friday he's still anticipating a rate rise this year. "Based on my forecast, yes I am" still expecting the central bank to boost short-term rates off their current near-zero levels before the year ends, Mr Dudley told the news channel. But he cautioned his view is based on his outlook the economy will continue to grow and add jobs at a decent clip, and he said his views on rates aren't "a commitment" to act. " Hawkish October 9, 2015 October 10, 2015
138  Charles L. Evans Fed's Evans says mid-2016 rate hike would get inflation to goal: ""We think that just delaying the fed funds rate liftoff currently until about the middle of 2016 and then a gradual path would be consistent with us getting inflation back up to 2 percent within a reasonable period of time," Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans said after a speech to the CFA Society Milwaukee. "I would like it to move up more quickly than that, but at the moment we are thinking that that's what appropriate policy would be"." Dovish October 9, 2015 October 9, 2015
139  John C. Williams The Economic Outlook: Live Long and Prosper: "And given the progress we’ve made and continue to make on our goals, I view the next appropriate step as gradually raising interest rates, most likely starting sometime later this year. Of course, that view is not immutable and will respond to economic developments over time."  Similar to Prior Statement Hawkish October 8, 2015 October 8, 2015
140  Jeffrey M. Lacker Lacker: Fed Taking Risks With Economy at Full Employment: "Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Jeffrey Lacker said the U.S. is already at full employment and the central bank may risk overheating the economy as it attempts to drive additional job gains. With the unemployment rate at 5.1 percent, the central bank has achieved its goal and "exhausted relevant slack in the labor market," the Richmond Fed chief said." Hawkish October 8, 2015 October 9, 2015
141  Narayana Kocherlakota Fed should cut interest rates, Kocherlakota says: "The Federal Reserve should cut interest rates below their current near-zero levels, a top U.S. central banker said on Thursday, staking out a more strongly dovish position on monetary policy than any of his fellow policymakers." Dovish October 8, 2015 October 8, 2015
142  John C. Williams The Economic Outlook: Live Long and Prosper: "And given the progress we’ve made and continue to make on our goals, I view the next appropriate step as gradually raising interest rates, most likely starting sometime later this year. Of course, that view is not immutable and will respond to economic developments over time."  Similar to Prior Statement Hawkish October 6, 2015 October 6, 2015
143  John C. Williams Fed's John Williams Still Expects Rate Increase This Year -- Update: "Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President John Williams said Tuesday he still expects the central bank to begin raising short-term interest rates this year, despite a slowing of job gains in September." Hawkish October 6, 2015 October 6, 2015
144  Eric S. Rosengren Even after jobs report, Fed’s Rosengren not convinced economy has hit a soft patch: "So while we did get a weak jobs report, I don’t think that, by itself, would prevent us to necessarily have the same conditions that we put down in the SEP, which the vast majority of people thought would be sufficient to start raising rates. Now if instead of getting what we thought was going to occur in the SEP, we instead get a series of data that are much weaker, and that this jobs report is signaling much weaker, then we obviously shouldn’t do anything. And so it does depend on how the additional data comes in." (Interview appears to have taken place on 10/5, although this is not confirmed.) Neutral October 5, 2015 October 6, 2015
145  Eric S. Rosengren Despite 'weak' jobs report, Fed's Rosengren still sees 2015 rate hike: "Eric Rosengren still expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates this year despite what the head of the Boston Fed called a "weak" September jobs report, which could signal a more significant economic slowdown that delays the policy tightening." (It is unclear whether this interview took place on 10/3 or 10/4.) Hawkish October 4, 2015 October 5, 2015
146  Eric S. Rosengren Fed’s Rosengren: If Weak Jobs Data Continues, Fed Should Delay Rate Rises: "Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Eric Rosengren said Saturday that his confidence that the U.S. central bank can raise rates soon has diminished in the wake of underwhelming employment data." Dovish October 3, 2015 October 5, 2015
147  Eric S. Rosengren Fed's Rosengren Says 2% Growth Needed for Rate Liftoff This Year: "Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Eric Rosengren said the U.S. economy needs to be growing at a 2 percent pace in the second half of the year to justify an interest-rate increase by December." Neutral October 3, 2015 October 5, 2015
148  James Bullard Three Challenges to Central Bank Orthodoxy: "A simple and prudent approach to current policy would be to begin normalizing the policy settings in an effort to extend the length of the expansion and to avoid taking unnecessary risks associated with exceptionally low rates and a large Fed balance sheet." Hawkish October 2, 2015 October 2, 2015
149  Eric S. Rosengren Q. and A. With Fed’s Eric Rosengren: Still Bullish on Economy: "Mr. Rosengren acknowledged that the Fed was unlikely to raise rates at its next meeting, in late October, but said he continued to view an increase in the near future as the most likely and appropriate outcome." Hawkish October 2, 2015 October 5, 2015
150  Eric S. Rosengren Fed's Rosengren says supports 2015 rate hike: Fox Business Network: ""I actually think it would be appropriate to start raising rates by the end of the year if we continue to get positive data," Rosengren told Fox Business Network in the interview. "I think many other participants in the meeting are expecting to continue to have a strong U.S. economy, and as long as the U.S. economy is continuing to improve, and we think labor markets will tighten up, it will be appropriate to start raising rates sometime this quarter."" Hawkish October 2, 2015 October 2, 2015
151  John C. Williams Fed's Williams Sees Higher Rates as Early as October--Update: "Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President John Williams said Thursday he sees interest rates going up this year, perhaps as early as October, as the U.S. economy is nearing full employment." Hawkish October 1, 2015 October 1, 2015
152  John C. Williams The Economic Outlook: Live Long and Prosper: "And given the progress we’ve made and continue to make on our goals, I view the next appropriate step as gradually raising interest rates, most likely starting sometime later this year. Of course, that view is not immutable and will respond to economic developments over time."  Similar to Prior Statement Hawkish October 1, 2015 October 1, 2015
153  Jeffrey M. Lacker Richmond Fed’s Lacker Says October Rate Rise Possible: "The Federal Reserve could get enough new information by its late October policy meeting to spur officials to raise short-term interest rates then, Jeffrey Lacker, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal on Wednesday." Hawkish September 30, 2015 October 1, 2015
154  Loretta J. Mester US 'can handle' rate hike this year: Cleveland Fed chief: "I cannot comment on other people, but personally, when I look at the economy today, I think we can handle an increase in interest rates. But we're going to be assessing the incoming data over the time." (Interview was published on 9/29, but it is unclear if it was actually conducted that same day.) Hawkish September 29, 2015 September 29, 2015
155  Narayana Kocherlakota Kocherlakota Says Low Inflation Warrants Further Fed Stimulus: ""Given the inflation outlook, given how low inflation is expected to be, to ensure the credibility of our inflation target, taking a more accommodative stance in September would have been totally justified," Kocherlakota said in the interview, broadcast Saturday. He steps down from the Fed on Dec. 31 and is not a voting member of the FOMC this year." Dovish September 29, 2015 October 3, 2015
156  Charles L. Evans Thoughts on Leadership and Monetary Policy: "Before raising rates, I would like to have more confidence than I do today that inflation is indeed beginning to head higher. Given the current low level of core inflation, some evidence of true upward momentum in actual inflation is critical to this assessment. I believe that it could well be the middle of next year before the headwinds from lower energy prices and the stronger dollar dissipate enough so that we begin to see some sustained upward movement in core inflation. After liftoff, I think it would be appropriate to raise the target interest rate very gradually." Dovish September 28, 2015 September 28, 2015
157  William C. Dudley Fed’s Dudley: Still Likely on Track for 2015 Rate Rise: "William Dudley, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, said the decision on when to start lifting rates will be driven by a broad array of considerations, including the health of the U.S. economy, financial conditions and overseas events. The central bank could move at either of its two remaining scheduled policy meetings this year, in late October or mid-December, he said." Hawkish September 28, 2015 September 28, 2015
158  John C. Williams The Economic Outlook: Live Long and Prosper: "And given the progress we’ve made and continue to make on our goals, I view the next appropriate step as gradually raising interest rates, most likely starting sometime later this year. Of course, that view is not immutable and will respond to economic developments over time." Hawkish September 28, 2015 September 28, 2015
159  Loretta J. Mester Fed: "Si los tipos son bajos largo tiempo se corren graves riesgos para la economía:" "From my point of view, one of the criteria for the rate hike has already been fulfilled. The other condition is inflation and I am confident that it will eventually reach 2 percent in the medium term." (Comment translated from Spanish via Google Translate. The interview was published on 9/25, but it is unclear when it actually took place.) Hawkish September 25, 2015 September 25, 2015
160  Janet L. Yellen Janet Yellen Expects Interest Rate Increase This Year: "Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen argued the case for raising short-term interest rates later this year, effectively lobbing a warning to skittish financial markets that last week’s decision to keep rates near zero wasn’t a shift toward an interminable delay of liftoff." Hawkish September 24, 2015 September 24, 2015
161  Loretta J. Mester The Fed has met the criteria for a rate rise: ""When I think of the criteria the FOMC has set for lift-off, I am pretty confident that we have met those criteria," Mester said in an exclusive interview with Business Spectator." (The interview was published on 9/24, but it is unclear when it actually took place.) Hawkish September 24, 2015 September 24, 2015
162  James Bullard We asked a Federal Reserve board member 12 questions — here is what he said: "I think that the case [for raising rates] is compelling, and I'm concerned that the debate has drifted toward even small moves being construed as tightening monetary policy. That isn't the case." (It is not clear on which date this interview actually took place.) Hawkish September 23, 2015 September 23, 2015
163  James Bullard Fed's Bullard: October rate hike possible, but ...: "St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said Monday it's time to increase interest rates, and policymakers should not react to turmoil in financial markets." Hawkish September 21, 2015 September 21, 2015
164  Dennis P. Lockhart Comments on the Recent Monetary Policy Decision: "In my vote at the recent FOMC meeting, I put most of the decision weight on prudent risk management around recent and current market volatility. As things settle down, I will be ready for the first policy move on the path to a more normal interest-rate environment. I am confident the much-used phrase "later this year" is still operative." Hawkish September 21, 2015 September 21, 2015
165  Jeffrey M. Lacker Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker Comments on FOMC Dissent: "The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided on September 17, 2015, to maintain a target range of zero to 25 basis points for the federal funds rate. I dissented because I believe that an increase in our interest rate target is needed, given current economic conditions and the medium-term outlook." Hawkish September 19, 2015 September 19, 2015
166  James Bullard A Long, Long Way to Go: "The case for normalization is simple: The Committee’s goals have essentially been met, but the Committee’s policy settings remain stuck in emergency mode." Hawkish September 19, 2015 September 19, 2015
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